Predicting the outcome of actions

News & Media

Prof Jan Kruger

The inaugural lecture of Prof Jan Kruger, School of Business Leadership (SBL), entitled "Identifying the causal structure from the correlation matrix", took place on 1 March 2018.

In his lecture, Kruger said that the causal structure could be different from the best posterior probability structure. He explains what he means:

"We all talk about causality every day. It is difficult to calculate the effect that one variable has on another variable. We use this to predict the outcome of actions. To calculate the effect, we use models. By using Bayesian models, we can find the direction that the causal influence affects variables. This is in contrast to models like structural equation modelling, where only the statistical relation between variables can be found, not the causal direction. Coopers and Herskovitz developed a formula that calculates the best posterior probability structure; however, this is a difficult formula to calculate as it uses gamma integrals. I discovered that the assumption that the best posterior probability structure is the causal structure is flawed. I proved some theorems based on the true causal structure. This is a rework of my article published in Advanced Science Letters, a multidisciplinary peer-reviewed journal with an H-index of 21."

You can read the full presentation here.

The man behind the professor

A perfect day begins with? And ends with?

Doing constructive and stimulating work. I wake up before the sun rises. The perfect day ends with the satisfaction that all my work is up to date.

If you could have any paranormal power for 24 hours, what would it be?

Change my date of birth to avoid age discrimination. Surely my date of birth has nothing to do with my ability to do my work?

What is your favourite childhood memory of the sea?

Swimming from the Strand to Steenbrasmond, about 20 km.

What is the most challenging part of being a professor?

Having to work under policies that hinder rather than assist productivity.

What are your aspirations in this position?

Well, under the Unisa termination of employment policy, my employment will be terminated at the end of the year. My problem is to find employment as a professor in a country where the constitution prohibits the human rights violation of age discrimination and actually implements this. The South African constitution, section 9, does not allow age discrimination, but the universities do not bother to abide by the constitution.

*Compiled by Sharon Farrell

Publish date: 2018-07-13 00:00:00.0