Unisa online - What does 7 billion people mean?

The world welcomed the birth of its 7 billionth resident this week. Prof Gretchen du Plessis, demographer and part of Unisa’s Sociology Department, gives us her insight into the implication of this, both nationally and globally, and also takes a look at what it could mean for our future.

The symbolic achievement of the 7 billionth birth this week heralds a new benchmark in the size of the world population. However, it is important to note that it is not only its sheer size that makes the global population an important social force, but also that the rate of its increase during the second half of the twentieth century was faster than at any other point in history.

Moreover, the growth rates and compositions of populations differ considerably between countries and regions of the world. The changing composition of populations is therefore as striking a feature as its sheer size. The most striking changes in the composition of the contemporary populations are in terms of the age structure and in the distributions of populations over rural areas and cities.

The age structure and rural/urban distributions of population differ between the more developed countries (MDCs ) and least developed countries (LDCs). For example, the number of working age adults per dependent child is as follows:

Thus: where there are almost 4 working age adults able to support 1 child too young to work for a living in the MDCs, there are less than 2 adults potentially supporting a child in the MDCs.

In addition, consumption patterns and access to natural resources and food security differ considerably between the MDCs and LDCs. Food security is a huge problem for LDCs, with malnutrition becoming a major health threat, leading to child stunting (failure to thrive and too small for age due to chronic malnutrition). In 40 LDCs more than 40% of the children under 5 years old are stunted. India has 61 million stunted children.

In the 20th century, global water consumption is said to have grown at twice the rate of population growth during the same period. Fresh water is not distributed evenly across the globe and this is likely to result in water scarcity.

South Africa is currently completing the 2011 census, so we are eagerly awaiting new data on the size and shape of our population. In comparison with the MDCs and LDCs, South Africa does not face major population growth challenges. The birth rate has been low for some years now. However, in terms of indices of health (see table below), we still face challenges in meeting the Millennium Development Goals. Our maternal mortality rates, infant death rates and HIV and AIDS rates are relatively high.

Indices of mortality and health in selected world regions, 2010:

Is the world really overpopulated? This is a philosophical question that has perplexed many social thinkers for many years – such as Robert Malthus, Karl Marx, Friedrich Engels, Emile Durkheim, Amartya Sen. In a vastly inequitable world – how can we argue that there are more people than resources, when the available resources are controlled by a small, affluent majority? Is the world’s ecosystem stressed by the sheer size of the human population – yes, that is true as well. However, to argue for or against overpopulation, one should take the IPAT principle into consideration: the impact of the population is related to population size, the affluence levels of the population and the technology needed to produce the goods and services (use of resources, pollution) that are needed to sustain that level of affluence. In this regard, Amartya Sen (Development as Freedom 1991 page 161) suggests: “For the elimination of hunger in the modern world, it is crucial to understand the causations of famines in an adequately broad way, and not just in terms of some mechanical balance between food and population.”

*Story provided by Doreen Gough