Playing in the premier league

Renowned South African scenario planner Dr Clem Sunter believes that South Africans do not celebrate the excellence of their country and citizens as much as they could and should. Speaking at a presentation on The World and South Africa in the 2010s at the Senate Hall, Muckleneuk Campus, on 30 July 2009, Dr Sunter said that if South Africans changed their attitude and culture towards “pockets of excellence”, it would be one way of ensuring the country stays in the premier league scenario, a scenario which indicates that a country is in good shape.

Dr Sunter explained that for a country, the two pivotal uncertainties are its competitiveness on the global playing field as well as, from an internal perspective, the state of its society, such as whether it is characterised by harmony or conflict. Explaining the concept of the national gameboard, he said there were three scenarios a country could find itself in: premier league, 2nd league division and failed state.

South Africa has been in the premier league scenario since 1994 and, until 2007, international surveys ranked South Africa in about the middle of the 57 so-called premier league economies in the world. Despite falling 15 places on the rankings between 2007 and 2008, South Africa has recovered this year and is now ranked 48. Dr Sunter cited HIV/AIDS, violent crime, deteriorating infrastructure and uncompetitive industries as reasons for South Africa’s fall, but believed the country’s resilience during the global economic recession has helped elevate its rankings and place it back into the premier league scenario.

To ensure South Africa now remains in the premier league and grows within this scenario, there are three main issues that need attention.

Inclusive leadership

Dr Sunter believes the last thing that South Africa needs is to be a divided country. “President Zuma has done well with the appointment of people, as these have been very inclusive.” He said great examples are the appointments of Bheki Cele as the new National Police Commissioner and Gill Marcus as the new Governor of the Reserve Bank.

Rectifying the problems that caused South Africa's recent slide in the economy ranking

“The best way to do this is to recognise pockets of excellence in South Africa. The South African Revenue Service (SARS) is one example of excellence. Why can’t we take this model that worked for SARS and apply it to other departments?”

The evolution of a dual-logic economy: creating an outward-looking economy and an inward-looking economy

In creating an outward-looking economy, Dr Sunter suggests that South Africa must use its strengths such as resources, tourism as its playing cards. He also highlighted that South Africa is the gateway to Africa in terms of investment and technology, pointing out that South Africa accounted for about 30% of Africa’s gross domestic product. In terms of creating an inward-looking economy, more emphasis needs to be placed on small businesses, as this can lead to massive job creation.

Speaking on the bestselling books, Mind of a Fox, Games Foxes Play as well as Socrates and The Fox, which Dr Sunter co-wrote with motivational speaker, scenario strategist and facilitator, Chantell Ilbury, he said the books were written to provide an alternative to the Hedgehog Model of management. He described the Hedgehog Model as one that saw management focus on one big idea, while the Fox Model allows management to test the resilience of their strategies and tactics against different scenarios and implement alternatives faster and more effectively than their competitors, should the need arise. “The aim of the books is to introduce a model that integrates scenario planning into the mainstream process of strategic planning and decision-making.”

Dr Sunter said South Africa had a 70% chance of staying in the premier league scenario and a 30% chanced of being relegated into the 2nd league division. “How can we be so optimistic? Well, our banking system is in good shape, Zuma has started his term as President well, Zimbabwe is finally opening up for business and we are seeing the return of quite a few younger South Africans. It’s said that South Africans tolerate mediocrity instead of celebrating excellence, and elevating excellence is the only way we can lift this country.”